The OECD believes that the strong rebound after the Covid-19 economic crisis in 2020 may soon moderate in several major economies.
Wonk Monk, an economic policy activist, retweeted an article shared by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), on its latest composite leading indicators (CLIs) showing that the strong rebound from the coronavirus crisis to eventually slow down for several economies such as Canada, Italy, Germany, and the UK.
The CLIs however, indicated stable economic growth for countries like Japan and the Euro Area as a whole. In the US, the CLIs indicated stable growth, while France is also expected to recover well after the Covid-induced economic fallout. With respect to the emerging market, Russia is showing signs of moderating growth, while China loses momentum and has dropped to below its long-term trend. In India, the CLI indicated stable growth, whereas Brazil is headed towards a sharp growth slowdown.
Uncertainties around the Covid-19 pandemic and the emergence of the Delta and now Omicron variant may result in further fluctuations in the CLI and its components.
Rupa Subramanya, economist and columnist at the National Post and Nikkei Asia, shared an article on the prime minister of India, Narendra Modi, striking a different tone while addressing the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Davos Agenda. The WEF’s annual meeting could not take place in 2021 because of the Covid-19 pandemic but is deferred till early summer this year.
Addressing the agenda, the prime minister stated that India is fighting another Covid-19 wave driven by the emergence of the Omicron variant, with full alertness and caution while maintaining economic growth. Subramanya believes that one year has made all the difference, as Modi had last year stated at Davos that India had beaten the pandemic, with Delta cases just starting to tick up.
Some key highlights of the agenda included the country’s efforts to focus on reforms during the pandemic. India has also been able to administer about 160 crore Covid-19 vaccine doses, while investing in IT and digital infrastructure to curb the spread of the virus.
Dina D. Pomeranz
Dina D. Pomeranz, economist and assistant professor of applied economics at the University of Zurich, retweeted an article shared by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, on how the Covid-19 crisis has increased the inequalities in the labour market. Michael Siegenthaler, a labour market specialist and the head of the research division Swiss labour market at KOF, discusses the winners and losers of the pandemic, and what the outlook for wages and employment will be once the virus crisis subsides.
Siegenthaler believes that the Covid-19 crisis has accelerated the pace of digitalisation in some sectors, but has caused very little creative destruction and more destructive destruction. The KOF analysis also found bankruptcies to have declined at the start of the crisis, while sectors like textiles, gloves, household appliances, outwear, and precious metals performed well as against artworks, machine tools, stationery, crude oil and distillates, among others.
He also believes that Switzerland has benefitted from its strong pharmaceutical industry, and thereby has been involved in the swift production of Covid-19 vaccines that has contributed to its growth during the pandemic. In that respect, it has suffered less than other European countries.