View all newsletters
Receive our newsletter – data, insights and analysis delivered to you
  1. Comment
May 1, 2020

Japan is on track to quickly stamp out the recent Covid-19 surge but more are likely in the future

By GlobalData Healthcare

GlobalData has produced three-scenario peak-week models for all countries experiencing more than 100 cases of the new coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). While the peak-week models fit the epidemiology curves in markets such as the US and Western Europe, several Asian countries do not fit the expected exponential curves of a typical epidemiology outbreak in an immune-naïve population. GlobalData’s epidemiology team used its experience in modelling the global Covid-19 outbreak to examine the factors causing Asian countries to have different outbreak trajectories and produced an alternate forecast model for Japan. One-size-fits-all recommendations to counter the outbreak will not be effective, as the pandemic is showing different outcomes in each country. Governments need to tailor solutions to their own unique situations.

Free Report
img

Navigate your business through the ‘new normal’

COVID-19 continues to dominate headlines the world over. It has already affected our lives forever. The way we work, shop, eat, seek medical advice, and socialize will all be different in the future. Quite how different remains to be seen, but all industries must plan for multiple eventualities.  Faced with an explosion of conflicting information on how to plan and implement successful recovery strategies, decision-makers are in dire need of a single, reliable source of intelligence.   GlobalData’s COVID-19 Executive Briefing gives you access to unparalleled data and insights to successfully navigate the uncertain road to recovery across the world’s largest industries. Understand every aspect of this disruptive theme by delving into: 
  •  COVID-19 infection update, with statistics on the spread, testing by country, as well as the latest data on vaccines and therapeutic developments 
  • Economic impact overview, covering stock market indices, GDP, unemployment rates, policy responses & GlobalData’s economic recovery scorecards 
  • Sector developments, with access to sector insight summaries, cross-sector indices and the leaders and laggards in each industry vertical 
Whatever your company’s imminent strategic plans, the long-lasting impact of COVID-19 must not be overlooked. Find out how to futureproof your business operations – download our report today. 
by GlobalData
Enter your details here to receive your free Report.

Japan’s Covid-19 case count and infection rate have been relatively mild since its first reported case on 16 January. Given the country’s proximity to China, large numbers of travel and commercial contacts within Asia, and having the infamous Diamond Princess cruise ship in its harbour, the rate for total infections in Japan was as low as one case per million population one month later in February, and seven cases per million population two months later in March. For comparison, the first suspected domestic transmission in the US occurred on 26 February. The rate for total infections one month later in the US was already at 255 cases per million population, and a staggering 2,946 cases per million population two months later.

Figure 1 presents Japan’s historical data of daily new cases plotted against general transmission risk models. New viral infection with R0 higher than one and moderate severity in the majority of cases, such as the novel coronavirus, would be expected to spread rapidly after being introduced into an immune-naïve population. The general transmission risk models follow this expectation. Countries like the US, Italy, and Spain experienced this type of trajectory, with cases in these markets doubling every two to five days during the first few months of the outbreak. However, this scenario did not play out in Japan because of the fast, strong, early countermeasures that were taken. Japan responded extremely rapidly in the beginning stages of the Covid-19 outbreak, likely due to its experience with past viral outbreaks such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), as well as the nation’s general hygiene practices and citizens’ tendency to wear masks when out in public.

Japan started seeing a concerning increase in the number of cases by end of March, and the government declared a limited state of emergency on 7 April in the most hard-hit areas. The declaration was expanded to the country as a whole on 17 April when cases continue to climb. It is unclear what caused the second surge in cases, but it is likely due to a combination of uncontrolled imported cases, undetected domestic transmission, and failure to meet testing demands. Unlike South Korea, testing in Japan was not scaled up to the general public and only limited to those fitting specific criteria.

However, GlobalData has already seen a significant downturn in new daily cases since the national emergency was declared. Figure 1 also shows GlobalData’s forecast for Japan’s trajectory in the next several weeks. GlobalData expects Japan to quickly stamp out this recent surge in cases, but the country is likely to see additional surges in the future.

Figure 1: Japan, Covid-19 Epidemiology Forecast for Trajectory of Daily New Cases (N)

Related Companies

Free Report
img

Navigate your business through the ‘new normal’

COVID-19 continues to dominate headlines the world over. It has already affected our lives forever. The way we work, shop, eat, seek medical advice, and socialize will all be different in the future. Quite how different remains to be seen, but all industries must plan for multiple eventualities.  Faced with an explosion of conflicting information on how to plan and implement successful recovery strategies, decision-makers are in dire need of a single, reliable source of intelligence.   GlobalData’s COVID-19 Executive Briefing gives you access to unparalleled data and insights to successfully navigate the uncertain road to recovery across the world’s largest industries. Understand every aspect of this disruptive theme by delving into: 
  •  COVID-19 infection update, with statistics on the spread, testing by country, as well as the latest data on vaccines and therapeutic developments 
  • Economic impact overview, covering stock market indices, GDP, unemployment rates, policy responses & GlobalData’s economic recovery scorecards 
  • Sector developments, with access to sector insight summaries, cross-sector indices and the leaders and laggards in each industry vertical 
Whatever your company’s imminent strategic plans, the long-lasting impact of COVID-19 must not be overlooked. Find out how to futureproof your business operations – download our report today. 
by GlobalData
Enter your details here to receive your free Report.

NEWSLETTER Sign up Tick the boxes of the newsletters you would like to receive. A weekly roundup of the latest news and analysis, sent every Friday. The pharmaceutical industry's most comprehensive news and information delivered every month.
I consent to GlobalData UK Limited collecting my details provided via this form in accordance with the Privacy Policy
SUBSCRIBED

THANK YOU

Thank you for subscribing to Pharmaceutical Technology