The revenue for Aflibercept Biosimilar is expected to reach an annual total of $339 mn by 2039 globally based off GlobalData’s Revenue Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Aflibercept Biosimilar Overview

Aflibercept biosimilar is under development for the treatment of neovascular (wet) age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and macular edema. It is administered through intravitreal (IVT) injection. The drug candidate acts by targeting placenta growth factor (PGF), vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGF-A)

Amgen Overview

Amgen is a biotechnology company, which discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets innovative human medicines to treat patients suffering from serious diseases. It develops novel medicines in therapeutic areas of cardiovascular, oncology/hematology, inflammation, bone health, neurological disorders and nephrology. The company develops products using advanced human genetics to analyze the difficulties of disease and understand the fundamentals of human biology. Amgen sells products primarily to pharmaceutical wholesale distributors in the US. It also markets certain products directly to consumers through direct-to-consumer channels and through partnerships with other companies. The company has presence in Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East, North America and Australia. Amgen is headquartered in Thousand Oaks, California, the US.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$26,323 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 1.3% over FY2021. In FY2022, the company’s operating margin was 36.3%, compared to an operating margin of 29.4% in FY2021. In FY2022, the company recorded a net margin of 24.9%, compared to a net margin of 22.7% in FY2021. The company reported revenues of US$6,105 million for the first quarter ended March 2023, a decrease of 10.7% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of Aflibercept Biosimilar’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

This content was updated on 2 September 2023

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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.