AFP is a gene-modified cell therapy commercialized by Adaptimmune Therapeutics, with a leading Phase I program in Hepatocellular Carcinoma. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 1 clinical trial, which is ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of AFP’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for AFP is expected to reach an annual total of $8 mn by 2038 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

AFP Overview

ADPA-2AFP is under development for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma. It is administered as an infusion. The therapy constitutes an autologous T cells engineered to express T cell receptors (TCR) targeting alpha-fetoprotein (AFP).

Adaptimmune Therapeutics Overview

Adaptimmune Therapeutics (Adaptimmune), formerly Adaptimmune Therapeutics is a clinical stage bio pharmaceutical company that develops innovative T-cell therapy products for the treatment of cancer. It harnesses the proprietary SPEAR (Specific Peptide Enhanced Affinity Receptor) T‑cell platform that engineers the T-cells to identify and exterminate cancer, including solid tumors. The company’s pipeline products include NY-ESO TCR for synovial sarcoma and multiple myeloma; MAGE A4 TCR for multiple solid tumors; AFP TCR for hepatocellular cancer; and MAGE-A10 TCR for bladder, melanoma, and head and neck cancer. The company has presence in the US and the UK. Adaptimmune is headquartered in Abingdon, Oxfordshire, the UK.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$6.2 million for the fiscal year ended December 2021 (FY2021), an increase of 55.4% over FY2020. The operating loss of the company was US$162.3 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of US$133.4 million in FY2020. The net loss of the company was US$158.1 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of US$130.1 million in FY2020. The company reported revenues of US$7 million for the third quarter ended September 2022, an increase of 26.5% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of AFP’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.