The revenue for ARQ-154 is expected to reach an annual total of $461 mn by 2033 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

ARQ-154 Overview

ARQ-154 is under development for the treatment of seborrheic dermatitis, scalp psoriasis and plaque psoriasis.The drug candidate is formulated as a foam and administered by topical route. It acts by targeting phosphodiesterase 4 (PDE4).

Arcutis Biotherapeutics Overview

Arcutis Biotherapeutics (Arcutis) is a biopharmaceutical company. It is in developing small molecules for the treatment of immune-mediated dermatological diseases and conditions. Its pipeline products include a topical roflumilast cream, ARQ-252, a small molecule inhibitor of Janus kinase type 1 (JAK1) to treat rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, Crohn’s disease and atopic dermatitis and ARQ-255 for inflammation in alopecia areata. Arcutis other pipeline includes ARQ 252 for the treatment of chronic hand eczema.The company also investigating novel dermatology treatments in inflammation and immunology diseases. Arcutis is headquartered in Westlake Village, California, the US.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$3.7 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022). The operating loss of the company was US$301.6 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of US$206.5 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was US$311.5 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of US$206.4 million in FY2021. The company reported revenues of US$2.8 million for the first quarter ended March 2023, a decrease of 6.1% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of ARQ-154’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

This content was updated on 2 September 2023

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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.