Atropine is a small molecule commercialized by Zhaoke Ophthalmology, with a leading Phase III program in Myopia. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 4 clinical trials, of which 1 was completed, and 3 are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Atropine’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for Atropine is expected to reach an annual total of $608 mn by 2033 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Atropine Overview

Atropine (NVK-002) is under development for the treatment of myopia. It is administered as topical ophthalmic solution. The drug candidate acts by targeting muscarinic cholinergic receptor (CHRM).

Zhaoke Ophthalmology Overview

Zhaoke Ophthalmology specializes in the development, manufacturing and marketing of ophthalmic drugs. Zhaoke Ophthalmology is headquartered in Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.

The operating loss of the company was CNY364.3 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of CNY55.4 million in FY2020. The net loss of the company was CNY2,129.8 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of CNY727 million in FY2020.

For a complete picture of Atropine’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.