AXA-1125 is a small molecule commercialized by Axcella Health, with a leading Phase II program in Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 5 clinical trials, of which 4 were completed, and 1 is ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of AXA-1125’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
The revenue for AXA-1125 is expected to reach an annual total of $29 mn by 2034 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
AXA-1125 Overview
AXA-1125 is under development for the treatment of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and long COVID or fatigue-predominant post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC). It is administered through the oral route. The drug candidate is a EMM composition of six amino acids and derivatives.
Axcella Health Overview
Axcella Health (Axcella), formerly Pronutria Biosciences, is a biotechnology company. It develops novel endogenous metabolic modulators (EMMs), which include amino acids that regulate fundamental health and disease pathways in metabolic dysregulation. Its pipeline portfolio includes AXA1665 against Cirrhosis; AXA1125 and AXA1957 targeting non-alcoholic fatty liver (NAFL) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH); AXA2678 used for the treatment of muscle diseases. Its AXA product candidate is based on cell-specific sets of amino acids that regulate multiple human biological pathways. The company is developing its pipeline amino acid candidates for treating orphan diseases in the therapeutic areas of muscle, CNS, metabolic and liver. Axcella is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, the US.
The operating loss of the company was US$61.9 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of US$53.8 million in FY2020. The net loss of the company was US$64.6 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of US$56.5 million in FY2020.
For a complete picture of AXA-1125’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
