The revenue for BT-8009 is expected to reach an annual total of $64 mn by 2038 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

BT-8009 Overview

BT-8009 is under development for the treatment of solid tumors like metastatic urothelial (transitional cell) carcinoma, non-small cell lung cancer, esophageal cancer, bladder cancer, urothelial carcinoma, pancreatic cancer, gastric cancer, epithelial ovarian cancer, fallopian tube cancer, primary peritoneal cancer, head and neck cancer and triple negative breast cancer. The drug candidate is a bicyclic peptide conjugate being developed based on bicyclic peptide technology composed of bicyclic peptides in combination with a matrix of different linkers for the delivery of a cytotoxic payload to the tumor cells. The peptide acts by targeting cells expressing nectin-4. It is administered through intravenous route.

Bicycle Therapeutics Overview

Bicycle Therapeutics is a biotechnology company. It develops bicyclic peptides and Medicines for the treatment of cancers and other debilitating diseases. The company’s Bicycle conjugates include BT1718, BT5528, and BT8009; and Immuno-Oncology offers BT7480, BT7401, and BT7455. Bicycle Therapeutics proprietary bicyclic peptide technology enables the systematic cyclisation of peptides and helps to identify bicycles that provide antibody-like affinity and selectivity in a much smaller chemically synthesized molecule. The company operates with other biotechnology companies for the development of bicyclic peptide inhibitors for the treatment of ophthalmic diseases such as diabetic macular edema, renal elimination, versatility for multimerization and conjugation. It works in collaboration with Cancer Research UK(CRUK), and AstraZeneca Plc in the areas of oncology, respiratory, cardiovascular, and metabolic diseases, among others. Bicycle Therapeutics is headquartered in Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, the UK.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$14.5 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 23.6% over FY2021. The operating loss of the company was US$116.7 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of US$65.6 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was US$112.7 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of US$66.8 million in FY2021. The company reported revenues of US$4.9 million for the first quarter ended March 2023, an increase of 53.7% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of BT-8009’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

This content was updated on 2 September 2023

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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.