CERC-002 is a monoclonal antibody commercialized by Avalo Therapeutics, with a leading Phase II program in Crohn’s Disease (Regional Enteritis). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 4 clinical trials, of which 1 was completed, 2 are ongoing, and 1 was terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of CERC-002’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for CERC-002 is expected to reach an annual total of $177 mn by 2037 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

CERC-002 Overview

AVTX-002 (AEVI-002, KHK-252067,SAR-252067) is under development for the treatment of severe pediatric onset Crohn’s disease, moderate to severe Crohn's disease, COVID-19 cytokine storm induced acute respiratory distress syndrome, pneumonia, acute lung injury and non-eosinophilic asthma (NEA). It is administered through subcutaneous route. It is a fully human anti-light monoclonal antibody. LIGHT is a tumor necrosis factor (TNF) super-family member that is implicated as a key mediator of inflammation.

It was under development for the treatment of ulcerative colitis.

Avalo Therapeutics Overview

Avalo Therapeutics, formerly Cerecor is a biopharmaceutical company that develops and commercializes novel products in the fields of neurology and pediatrics. The company’s products include prescription medications, prescription devices and dietary supplements. Its pipeline products offer treatment in the areas of neurogenic orthostatic hypotension, parkinsons disease, seizures in epilepsy and deoxyguanosine kinase deficiency. Avalo Therapeutics’ prescription medications comprise aciphex sprinkle, cefaclor, millipred tablets and dose packs and millipred oral solution, among others. The company also offers dietary supplements such as chewable tablets and drops. Avalo Therapeutics is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland, the US.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$5.4 million for the fiscal year ended December 2021 (FY2021), a decrease of 19.4% over FY2020. The operating loss of the company was US$82.1 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of US$72.8 million in FY2020. The net loss of the company was US$84.4 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of US$63.5 million in FY2020. The company reported revenues of US$15 million for the third quarter ended September 2022, compared to a revenue of US$1 million the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of CERC-002’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.