Cotadutide is a peptide commercialized by AstraZeneca, with a leading Phase III program in Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 16 clinical trials, of which 13 were completed, and 3 are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Cotadutide’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for Cotadutide is expected to reach an annual total of $23 mn by 2036 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Cotadutide Overview

Cotadutide (MEDI-0382) is under development for the treatment of type II diabetes, diabetic kidney disease (diabetic nephropathy) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). The drug candidate is administered through subcutaneous route as a solution. It is a peptide which acts by targeting glucagon like peptide-1 (GLP-1R) receptor and glucagon receptor. It is a new molecular entity (NME). It was under development for obesity.

AstraZeneca Overview

AstraZeneca is a biopharmaceutical company, which is focused on discovery, production and commercialization of a range of prescription drugs. It develops products related to therapy areas such as respiratory, cardiovascular, renal and metabolic diseases, cancer, autoimmune, infection and neurological diseases. The company’s product portfolio includes biologics, prescription pharmaceuticals and vaccines. AstraZeneca sells its products through wholly-owned local marketing companies, distributors and local representative offices. The company markets its products to primary care and specialty care physicians. The COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca has been approved for conditional marketing or emergency use. The company operates in Europe, the Americas, Asia, Africa and Australasia. AstraZeneca is headquartered in Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, the UK.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$44,351 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 18.5% over FY2021. The operating profit of the company was US$3,757 million in FY2022, compared to an operating profit of US$1,056 million in FY2021. The net profit of the company was US$3,288 million in FY2022, compared to a net profit of US$112 million in FY2021.

For a complete picture of Cotadutide’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.