(Deudextromethorphan hydrobromide + Quinidine sulfate) is a small molecule commercialized by Otsuka, with a leading Phase III program in Dementia Associated With Alzheimer’s Disease. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 17 clinical trials, of which 10 were completed, 4 are ongoing, and 3 were terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of (Deudextromethorphan hydrobromide + Quinidine sulfate)’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for (Deudextromethorphan hydrobromide + Quinidine sulfate) is expected to reach an annual total of $154 mn by 2034 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
(Deudextromethorphan hydrobromide + Quinidine sulfate) Overview
AVP-786 is under development for the treatment of agitation associated with dementia of the Alzheimer's type. It is a next-generation Nuedexta. The drug candidate is administered as capsule through oral route. It consists of a combination of deuterium modified dextromethorphan hydrobromide and ultra-low dose quinidine sulfate. It is an NMDA receptor antagonist and acts as a non-competitive channel blocker. The drug candidate is developed using DCE Platform (Deuterated Chemical Entity Platform) technology that produces several deuterium-modified dextromethorphan compounds. It was under development for schizophrenia, intermittent explosive disorder, levodopa-induced dyskinesia in Parkinson's disease, traumatic brain injury, treatment resistant major depressive disorder, disinhibition syndrome in patients with neurodegenerative disorders and neuropathic pain.
Otsuka Overview
Otsuka is a holding company, which operates various businesses such as pharmaceuticals, nutraceuticals, consumer products and other businesses through its subsidiaries. It focuses on the research and development, manufacture, and sale of medicines for the treatment of cancer, cardiovascular diseases, central nervous system disorders, ophthalmic diseases, gastrointestinal and respiratory diseases, infectious diseases, dermatological conditions, and allergies. The company’s product portfolio includes pharmaceutical products, cosmetics, functional foods and beverages, alcoholic beverages, fine chemicals, electronic equipment, functional chemicals, medical devices, and OTC products. It markets its products in North America, Europe, and Asia. Otsuka is headquartered in Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan.
The company reported revenues of (Yen) JPY1,737,998 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 16% over FY2021. In FY2022, the company’s operating margin was 8.8%, compared to an operating margin of 10.3% in FY2021. In FY2022, the company recorded a net margin of 7.7%, compared to a net margin of 8.4% in FY2021.
The company reported revenues of JPY448,344 million for the first quarter ended March 2023, a decrease of 5% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of (Deudextromethorphan hydrobromide + Quinidine sulfate)’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
