Elafibranor is a small molecule commercialized by Ipsen, with a leading Pre-Registration program in Primary Biliary Cholangitis (Primary Biliary Cirrhosis). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 28 clinical trials, of which 22 were completed, 3 are ongoing, and 3 were terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Elafibranor’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Elafibranor is expected to reach an annual total of $189 mn by 2033 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Elafibranor Overview
Elafibranor (GFT-505) is under development for the treatment of colitis, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), primary sclerosing cholangitis. The drug candidate is administered orally as a coated tablet. It acts by targeting peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR) alpha and PPAR-beta / PPAR- delta. The drug candidate was under development for dyslipidemia, abdominal obesity, type 2 diabetes, Crohn’s disease, insulin resistance and glucose intolerance, colitis and NAFLD/NASH-induced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). It was also underdevelopment for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, liver fibrosis.
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Ipsen Overview
Ipsen is a global specialty biopharmaceutical company engaged in the manufacturing and distribution of drugs for the treatment of cancer, rare diseases, and neurological diseases, including specialty pharmaceutical products. The company develops and commercializes novel medicines for cancer, neuroscience and rare diseases and offers products to treat gastrointestinal disorders, and neurodegenerative pathologies. Ipsen sells its drugs through a network of distributors and directly to hospitals in a few countries. The company operates its research and development facilities in Paris-Saclay, France; Oxford, the UK; and Cambridge, the US. The company offers products in Europe, North America, and rest of the world. Ipsen is headquartered in Paris, France.
The company reported revenues of (Euro) EUR3,156.4 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 14.8% over FY2021. In FY2022, the company’s operating margin was 23.2%, compared to an operating margin of 30.1% in FY2021. In FY2022, the company recorded a net margin of 20.5%, compared to a net margin of 23.5% in FY2021.
For a complete picture of Elafibranor’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
