Etrasimod is a small molecule commercialized by Everest Medicines, with a leading Pre-Registration program in Ulcerative Colitis. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 29 clinical trials, of which 17 were completed, 8 are ongoing, 1 is planned, and 3 were terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Etrasimod’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for Etrasimod is expected to reach an annual total of $279 mn by 2032 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Etrasimod Overview

Etrasimod (APD-334) is under development for the treatment of moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis, Crohn's disease, atopic dermatitis, alopecia areta and Eosinophilic Esophagitis (EOE). The drug candidate is a next-generation small molecule and is administered through oral route. It acts by targeting S1P1, S1P4 and S1P5 receptors. It is developed based on GPCR-based drug discovery technology platform. It was also under development for autoimmune diseases such as multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, rheumatoid arthritis and dermatological extraintestinal manifestations (EIM) in patients with inflammatory bowel disease. It was also under development for pyoderma gangrenosum and primary biliary cirrhosis (cholangitis).

Everest Medicines Overview

Everest Medicines, is a biopharmaceutical company that licenses, develops and commercializes medicines for the treatment of cancer, autoimmune, cardio renal and infectious diseases. It is investigating Sacituzumab govitecan, an antibody-drug conjugate targeting metastatic triple-negative breast cancer (mTNBC), metastatic urothelial cancer (mUc), non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and other oncology indications; and FGF401 for hepatocellular carcinoma. The company is evaluating Etrasimod to treat ulcerative colitis and other autoimmune diseases; Nefecon for IgA nephropathy; Ralinepag against pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Everest Medicines is also developing drugs for community-acquired bacterial pneumonia (CABP), complicated urinary tract infection (cUTi) and other infectious diseases. It works in partnership with Immunomedics, Novartis, Arena Pharmaceuticals and other companies to develop its products. Everest Medicines is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

The company reported revenues of (Renminbi) CNY0.1 million for the fiscal year ended December 2021 (FY2021). The operating loss of the company was CNY1,026.3 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of CNY688.5 million in FY2020. The net loss of the company was CNY1,008.7 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of CNY5,658.2 million in FY2020.

For a complete picture of Etrasimod’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.


GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.