Etrumadenant is a small molecule commercialized by Arcus Biosciences, with a leading Phase II program in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 21 clinical trials, of which 8 were completed, 10 are ongoing, and 3 are planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Etrumadenant’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for Etrumadenant is expected to reach an annual total of $74 mn by 2034 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Etrumadenant Overview

AB-928 is under development for the treatment of solid tumors including metastatic triple negative breast cancer, bladder cancer, rectal cancer, endometrial cancer, head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, melanoma, merkel cell carcinoma, pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer, metastatic ovarian cancer, metastatic gastroesophageal cancer, colorectal cancer, non-small cell lung cancer, and renal cell carcinoma. The drug candidate is administered orally. It acts by targeting adenosine receptor 2a and adenosine receptor 2b.

Arcus Biosciences Overview

Arcus Biosciences operates as a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on creating innovative cancer immunotherapies by leveraging underexploited biological opportunities. Its product pipeline includes AB928, a selective dual antagonist of the adenosine receptors known as A2aR and A2bR in combination with anti-PD-1 antibody (AB122) and chemotherapy is used for the treatment of metastatic triple-negative breast cancer or ovarian cancer and advanced malignancies; AB122, an anti-PD-1 antibody targeting cancer; AB154, an anti-TIGIT antibody; and AB680, a CD73 inhibitor against solid tumors. The company has in-house specialization in medicinal chemistry, immunology, biochemistry, pharmacology and structural biology. Arcus Biosciences is headquartered in Hayward, California, the US.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$382.9 million for the fiscal year ended December 2021 (FY2021), compared to a revenue of US$77.5 million in FY2020. The operating profit of the company was US$54.3 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of US$124.2 million in FY2020. The net profit of the company was US$52.8 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of US$122.9 million in FY2020. The company reported revenues of US$33.6 million for the third quarter ended September 2022, an increase of 25.5% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of Etrumadenant’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.