KPL-404 is a monoclonal antibody commercialized by Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, with a leading Phase II program in Rheumatoid Arthritis. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 2 clinical trials, of which 1 was completed, and 1 is ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of KPL-404’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for KPL-404 is expected to reach an annual total of $147 mn by 2038 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

KPL-404 Overview

KPL-404 is under development for the treatment of autoimmune diseases including T-cell-dependent, B-cell-mediated diseases, such as pemphigus/pemphigoid, myasthenia gravis, or graft versus host disease, sicca syndrome, systemic lupus erythematosus, rheumatoid arthritis, type 1 diabetes, ulcerative colitis, lupus nephritis, hidradenitis suppurativa, transplant rejection of heart, pancreatic islet and kidney, idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura. It is administered through intravenous or subcutaneous route. The drug candidate is a monoclonal antibody. It acts by targeting CD40.

It was also under development for the treatment of focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS).

Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Overview

Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals (Kiniksa) is a biopharmaceutical company that discovers, acquires, develops and commercializes medicines to treat autoinflammatory and autoimmune diseases. The company’s pipeline product portfolio includes Rilonacept drug for the treatment of recurrent pericarditis; mavrilimumab, against giant cell arteritis, COVID-19 and hyper inflammation; vixarelimab, targeting prurigo nodularis and diseases characterized by chronic pruritus; KPL-404, a monoclonal antibody to treat T-cell dependent, B-Cell–mediated indications. It develops medicines in the therapeutic areas of cardiovascular, dermatology and autoimmune diseases. The company has an operational presence in Massachusetts and California, the US; and London, the UK. Kiniksa is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$38.5 million for the fiscal year ended December 2021 (FY2021). The operating loss of the company was US$156.6 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of US$157.4 million in FY2020. The net loss of the company was US$157.9 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of US$161.4 million in FY2020. The company reported revenues of US$99.1 million for the third quarter ended September 2022, compared to a revenue of US$27 million the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of KPL-404’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.


GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.