Methotrexate is a small molecule commercialized by Aldeyra Therapeutics, with a leading Pre-Registration program in Primary CNS Lymphoma. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 4 clinical trials, of which 2 were completed, and 2 are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Methotrexate’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for Methotrexate is expected to reach an annual total of $67 mn by 2032 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Methotrexate Overview

Methotrexate is under development for the treatment of proliferative vitreoretinopathy (PVR), primary vitreoretinal lymphoma and retinal detachment. The drug candidate is administered through intravitreal route. It acts by targeting dihydrofolate reductase.

Aldeyra Therapeutics Overview

Aldeyra Therapeutics, is a biotechnology company. It offers treatment of immune-mediated diseases. The company offers product pipeline includes Reproxalap, an aldehyde trap for the treatment of allergic conjunctivitis and dry eye disease; ADX-2191 to treat proliferative vitreoretinopathy and intraocular lymphoma; and ADX-103/10X for the treatment of retinal disease. Aldeyra Therapeutics utilizes reactive aldehyde species (RASP), dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR) and chaperome (CHP) inhibition for advancing its pipeline products. The company’s drug candidates offer treatment for inflammation and genetic diseases caused by inborn errors of aldehyde metabolism. Aldeyra Therapeutics is headquartered in Lexington, Massachusetts, the US.

The operating loss of the company was US$56.2 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of US$36.4 million in FY2020. The net loss of the company was US$57.8 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of US$37.6 million in FY2020.

For a complete picture of Methotrexate’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.