MK-4830 is a monoclonal antibody commercialized by Merck, with a leading Phase II program in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma (ESCC). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 13 clinical trials, which are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of MK-4830’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for MK-4830 is expected to reach an annual total of $16 mn by 2039 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

MK-4830 Overview

MK-4830 is under development for the treatment of solid tumors such as metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma, colorectal cancer, glioblastoma multiforme, metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), recurrent or metastatic head and neck squamous cell cancer (HNSCC) of the oral cavity, oropharynx, hypopharynx, and/or larynx, mesothelioma, metastatic breast cancer, triple-negative breast cancer, high-grade epithelial ovarian, fallopian tube or primary peritoneal carcinoma, metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma, metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer, metastatic non-squamous non-small-cell lung cancer, small cell lung cancer, renal cell cancer and recurrent and/or metastatic gastric or gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma. The drug candidate comprises of human IgG4 monoclonal antibody and is developed based on retrocyte display technology and secant yeast display technology.  The drug candidate acts by targeting immunoglobulin like transcript 4.

Merck Overview

Merck is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development, manufacturing and marketing of prescription medicines, biologic therapies, vaccines, and animal health products. It offers prescription products for therapy areas related to cardiovascular, cancer, immune disorders, infectious, respiratory, and diabetes. The company provides animal health products such as vaccines, poultry products, livestock products and aquaculture products. Merck sells medicines to drug wholesalers, retailers, hospitals, government agencies and managed health care providers; and animal health products to veterinarians, distributors and animal producers. The company and its subsidiaries operate in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Merck is known as MSD outside the US and Canada and is headquartered in Kenilworth, New Jersey, the US.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$59,283 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 21.7% over FY2021. In FY2022, the company’s operating margin was 30.3%, compared to an operating margin of 25.7% in FY2021. In FY2022, the company recorded a net margin of 24.5%, compared to a net margin of 26.8% in FY2021. The company reported revenues of US$14,487 million for the first quarter ended March 2023, an increase of 4.8% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of MK-4830’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

This content was updated on 15 September 2023

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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.