NDI-034858 is a small molecule commercialized by Takeda Pharmaceutical, with a leading Phase II program in Psoriatic Arthritis. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 10 clinical trials, of which 5 were completed, and 5 are planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of NDI-034858’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for NDI-034858 is expected to reach an annual total of $116 mn by 2035 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

NDI-034858 Overview

TAK-279 (NDI-034858) is under development for the treatment of moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) including crohn's disease (regional enteritis), ulcerative colitis and systemic lupus erythematosus. The drug candidate acts by targeting nonreceptor tyrosine protein kinase (TYK2). It is administered through oral route as capsule.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Overview

Takeda Pharmaceutical (Takeda) is a research-based pharmaceutical company which focuses on the discovery, development, manufacturing, marketing, commercialization, import and export of pharmaceutical drugs. The company offers products in the areas of rare diseases, gastrointestinal, oncology, neuroscience, vaccines, and plasma-derived therapies. Takeda has facilities in Japan, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, the US, Denmark, Norway, Europe, Poland, Russia, Spain, Switzerland, China, India, and Canada among others. It markets products directly and through a network of wholesale distributors, retail chains and other purchasing groups worldwide. Takeda has partnership with academic institutions, small biotech, and large pharmaceutical companies. It has presence in the Americas, Europe, and Asia, among others. Takeda is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

The company reported revenues of (Yen) JPY4,027,478 million for the fiscal year ended March 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 12.8% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company’s operating margin was 13.2%, compared to an operating margin of 12.5% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 7.9%, compared to a net margin of 6.4% in FY2022.

For a complete picture of NDI-034858’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

This content was updated on 2 September 2023

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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.