OTO-413 is a protein commercialized by Otonomy, with a leading Phase II program in Hearing Disorders. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 2 clinical trials, of which 1 was completed, and 1 is planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of OTO-413’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for OTO-413 is expected to reach an annual total of $98 mn by 2037 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

OTO-413 Overview

OTO-413 is under development for the repair of cochlear synaptopathy and speech-in-noise hearing difficulties. The therapeutic candidate is administered through intratympanic route. The drug candidate is a brain-derived neurotropic factor (BDNF) sustained release formulation.

Otonomy Overview

Otonomy develops and markets treatments for diseases and disorders of the ear. The company’s Otiprio is US FDA approved ciprofloxacin otic suspension indicated during tympanostomy tube placement surgery in pediatric patients and otitis externa. Its pipeline portfolio encompasses Otividex for the treatment of meniere’s disease; OTO-313 for the treatment of tinnitus; OTO-510 for the treatment of cisplatin-induced hearing loss; OTO-413 for the treatment of synaptopathy hearing loss; and OTO-6XX for the treatment of severe hearing loss. The company is also investigating a preclinical program on GJB2 gener therapy in collaboration with AGTC for the treatment of congenital hearing loss. It employs its proprietary formulation technology that uses a thermosensitive gel and drug microparticles for enabling single-dose treatment by a physician. Otonomy is headquartered in San Diego, California, the US.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$0.1 million for the fiscal year ended December 2021 (FY2021), a decrease of 54.2% over FY2020. The operating loss of the company was US$49.6 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of US$43.5 million in FY2020. The net loss of the company was US$51.2 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of US$44.7 million in FY2020.

For a complete picture of OTO-413’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.