Sulanemadlin is a synthetic peptide commercialized by Aileron Therapeutics, with a leading Phase II program in Merkel Cell Carcinoma. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 10 clinical trials, of which 2 were completed, 6 are ongoing, 1 is planned, and 1 was terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Sulanemadlin’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for Sulanemadlin is expected to reach an annual total of $133 mn by 2038 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Sulanemadlin Overview

Sulanemadlin (ALRN-6924) is under development for the treatment of solid tumors, small cell lung cancer and pediatric tumors including lymphomas, acute myeloid leukemia acute lymphocytic leukemia, chemotherapy induced myelosuppression in patients with TP53-mutated HER2- breast cancer, retinoblastoma, hepatoblastoma, acute radiation induced toxicity, brain tumor, liposarcoma, ER positive/HER2 negative breast cancer, metastatic breast cancer and chemotherapy-induced hair loss. It is administered through the intravenous route. The drug candidate is a synthetic peptide which is developed based on stapled peptide technology that locks the peptides into certain folded shapes (biologically active shape), that are resistant to proteases. It acts by targeting murine double minute 2 (MDM2) and murine double minute X (MDMX).

The drug candidate was also under development for the treatment of adult peripheral T-cell lymphoma, lymphoma's, acute myeloid leukemia,p53-mutant chemotherapy induced myelosuppression in small cell lung cancer patients, myelodysplastic syndrome and non-small cell lung cancer.

Aileron Therapeutics Overview

Aileron Therapeutics is a biopharmaceutical company. The company discovers, develops, and commercializes novel class of therapeutics. It provides products such as ALRN-692 which is a peptide drug used to treat patients with p53-mutated cancer. ALRN-6924 as an anti-cancer agent including a single-agent Phase 1 trial in solid tumor and lymphoma patients; a Phase 2a trial for the treatment of peripheral T-cell lymphoma; a single-agent Phase 1 trial for the treatment of acute myeloid leukemia, or AML, and advanced high-risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MIDS). The company partners with research organizations to provide its products. Aileron Therapeutics is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts, the US.

The operating loss of the company was US$26.3 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of US$20.5 million in FY2020. The net loss of the company was US$26.2 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of US$21.2 million in FY2020.

For a complete picture of Sulanemadlin’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.


GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.