VLA-1553 is a live attenuated vaccine commercialized by Valneva, with a leading Pre-Registration program in Chikungunya Fever. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 5 clinical trials, of which 3 were completed, and 2 are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of VLA-1553’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for VLA-1553 is expected to reach an annual total of $356 mn by 2035 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

VLA-1553 Overview

VLA-1553 is under development for the prevention of chikungunya. It is administered through intramuscular route. It is a monovalent, single dose, live attenuated prophylactic vaccine developed based on EB66 technology.

Valneva Overview

Valneva is a biotechnology company that develops life-saving vaccines against infectious diseases and cancer. The company’s products include a vaccine indicated for the prevention of Japanese encephalitis and a vaccine indicated for the prevention of cholera and diarrhea. Its pipeline encompasses investigational candidates for the prevention of Lyme disease, Chikungunya, Zika virus, and infections caused by Clostridium difficile. The company works in partnership with various pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical companies to develop its pipeline vaccine candidates and distribute its products. The company sells its products in the Americas, Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East. It operates in Austria, Sweden, the UK, France, the US, and Canada. Valneva is headquartered in Saint-Herblain, France.

The company reported revenues of (Euro) EUR348.1 million for the fiscal year ended December 2021 (FY2021), compared to a revenue of EUR110.3 million in FY2020. The operating loss of the company was EUR61.4 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of EUR55.1 million in FY2020. The net loss of the company was EUR73.4 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of EUR64.4 million in FY2020. The company reported revenues of EUR156.7 million for the third quarter ended September 2022, an increase of 68.1% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of VLA-1553’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.