Z-1018 is a subunit vaccine commercialized by Dynavax Technologies, with a leading Phase I program in Herpes Zoster (Shingles). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 2 clinical trials, of which 1 was completed, and 1 is planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Z-1018’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for Z-1018 is expected to reach an annual total of $230 mn by 2037 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Z-1018 Overview

Z-1018 is under development for the prevention of herpes zoster (shingles) infection. The vaccine candidate is comprised of herpes zoster antigen-glycoprotein E (gE) with a toll-like receptor 9 (TLR9) agonist adjuvant (CpG 1018). It acts by targeting varicella zoster virus envelop glycoprotein E. It is administered by parenteral route.

Dynavax Technologies Overview

Dynavax Technologies (Dynavax) is an biopharmaceutical company that develops novel vaccines based on Toll-like receptor(TLR) biology and also focuses on Various infectious and inflammatory diseases. The company marketed product Heplisav-B is an adult vaccine which is indicated for the prevention of hepatitis B. The company’s pipeline focuses on combining the innate immune response with other immunomodulatory agents for the treatment of cancer. Its ongoing studies include DV2-ZOS-01 for immune-mediated, herpes zoster, and anaphylaxis events; DV2-HBV-27 for the pregnancy registry. Dynavax also has a vaccine candidate, DV2-TDAP-01 adjuvant, for pertussis. The company operates through its subsidiaries in Germany and India. Dynavax is headquartered in Emeryville, California, the US.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$439.4 million for the fiscal year ended December 2021 (FY2021), compared to a revenue of US$46.6 million in FY2020. The operating profit of the company was US$129.3 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of US$68.4 million in FY2020. The net profit of the company was US$76.7 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of US$75.2 million in FY2020. The company reported revenues of US$167.7 million for the third quarter ended September 2022, a decrease of 34.6% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of Z-1018’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.