GDP of majority of the economies to be below pre-Covid-19 levels for two to three years, according to leading macroeconomic influencers

GlobalData Thematic Research 30 April 2020 (Last Updated April 30th, 2020 11:50)

GDP of majority of the economies to be below pre-Covid-19 levels for two to three years, according to leading macroeconomic influencers

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic is expected to last more than three years for the majority of the countries affected. GDP levels are likely to fall to new record lows and the majority of the global workforce is expected to face unemployment.

Daniel Lacalle

Daniel Lacalle, an economist and author, shared a chart showing GDP levels of various countries until the end of 2022. The chart shows that the GDP levels of several countries will remain below the levels recorded before the Covid-19 pandemic.

Turkey and Spain are expected to have the lowest GDP levels, followed by Mexico, Brazil and Italy.

Ian Bremmer

Ian Bremmer, a political scientist and President of the Eurasia Group, tweeted about the fall in US GDP levels by 4.8% in the first quarter of 2020. He noted that the second quarter will witness a much greater fall in GDP levels.

Brian Riedl

Brian Riedl, senior fellow at Manhattan Institute, shared a chart depicting the 2020 US budget deficit, which is projected to reach 19% of GDP. He noted that federal spending is currently estimated at 28.8% of GDP, which is the highest since 1945, and revenues are estimated to be below 10% of GDP for the first time since World War II.

Colin Williams

Colin Williams, Professor of Public Policy at the University of Sheffield, tweeted an article that includes projections from the International Labour Organization regarding unemployment. The article states that more than half of the global workforce are at risk of losing their jobs due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Further, more than 430 million businesses in sectors such as retail and manufacturing are expected to face serious disruption.

Claudia Sahm

Claudia Sahm, a macroeconomist, tweeted a chart depicting the unemployment levels between 1948 and 2020. She noted that more than 30 million workers have filed for unemployment benefits since March.

Considering the number of layoffs and the unemployment claims, Sahm estimated the unemployment rate to be more than 20%.