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October 1, 2021

GlobalData Epidemiologist Report: India sees Covid downturn as Pakistan suffers fourth wave

By Paul Dennis

1 October

Globally, the total confirmed cases of Covid-19 have reached over 233,833,000, with more than 4,784,000 deaths reported.

In India, the once out of control surge of Covid-19 infections is continuing to decline despite modest vaccination rates.

India was hard hit by Covid-19 in May 2021, where cases surpassed 9,284,000 total confirmed cases and there were around 299,000 daily new cases.

Curfews were imposed, and schools and offices were ordered to remain shut, to restrict the spread of the virus.

Since then, the overall daily confirmed cases have decreased, and are stabilizing around 34,000.

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The number of deaths reported daily is now the lowest it has been since May, with around 350 average daily deaths recorded throughout September.

However, the same pattern does not follow in all geographic regions across India; as cases in the Southern State of Kerala are now trending upwards, making it the second worst effected region, after Maharashtra.

Currently, 16% of the Indian population are fully vaccinated.

As schools begin to re-open and the lockdown measures continue to be lifted, it is important that the vaccine rollout, and vaccine campaigns, are targeted regionally to prevent another surge of the virus which could spread from region to region.

Pakistan is currently experiencing the fourth wave of Covid-19 infection.

With over 1,245,000 total confirmed cases, they are currently recording around 3,000 daily new cases.

This figure is much higher than it was in June (where they reported 1,200 daily new cases).

Mitigating measures were imposed in May and are now beginning to ease as cases stabilize.

The government has decided that the new restrictions will be set based on regional vaccination rates; regions with higher rates will be allowed to open restaurants, markets, and businesses with a curfew.

Around 12% of Pakistan’s population are currently vaccinated.

As of today, the Prime Minister has imposed tougher restrictions for unvaccinated people; those without two vaccines will be unable to enter domestic flights, shops, and restaurants.

The Government has approved vaccines for children over 12 years.

These new measures should increase the percentage of the population that are vaccinated and reduce the number of new Covid-19 cases, meaning further restrictions can be lifted by the end of 2021.

Anna Moody, MRES, Epidemiologist at GlobalData

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