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August 18, 2021

GlobalData Epidemiologist Report: Low vaccination rates promote Covid Delta spikes

By Paul Dennis

18 August

Globally, the total confirmed cases of Covid-19 have reached over 208,757,000, with more than 4,385,000 deaths and over 143,880,000 recoveries reported.

The US has reported over 623,000 Covid-19 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic and leads the world in this category.

Brazil and India follow behind in Covid-19 deaths with over 570,000 and 432,000 deaths, respectively.

In the US, the moving seven-day average for Covid-19 deaths has more than doubled since mid-July from roughly 300 deaths per day to approximately 750 Covid-19 deaths per day.

These increases correspond with an increase in average daily confirmed cases in the US, which have increased by 52% over the last two weeks and are heavily concentrated in areas with lower proportions of fully vaccinated individuals.

These trends are associated with an increase in the Delta variant, and show how quickly the variant can spread through areas with lower vaccination as areas with higher vaccination rates are not seeing such a sharp rise in daily confirmed cases.

In Canada, daily confirmed cases have increased by over 145% over the last couple of weeks.

The increase is driven by rises in daily confirmed cases across most provinces, indicating that Covid-19 is not isolated to a single geographical location.

Canada has mandated vaccinations for all federal employees and travellers using air and rail as a means of transportation.

It is unclear if the mandate will significantly slow down the spread of transmission as data on the Delta variant, which is quickly becoming the dominant variant in Canada, suggests that fully vaccinated individuals may still transmit the virus.

However, these measures should be effective in reducing mortality as the vaccines are very effective at preventing death.

Walter Gabriel, MPH at GlobalData Plc.

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