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September 1, 2021

GlobalData Epidemiologist Report: Covid two month peak and decline cycle identified

By Paul Dennis

1 September

Globally, the total confirmed cases of Covid-19 have reached over 217,769,000 with more than 4,520,000 deaths reported.

The US has fully vaccinated 53% of its population.

The vaccine administration rates peaked in early April and have declined since due to the high initial vaccine uptake in individuals who were the most eager to receive the vaccine.

Since the rise of the Delta variant in the US, breakthrough infections have been reported.

Among fully vaccinated people in each state, breakthrough infections account for less than 6% of all Covid-19 related deaths.

Among fully vaccinated patients with Covid-19 breakthrough infections, people ages 65 and older accounted for 87% of deaths and 70% of hospitalizations.

In the US, where children are preparing to begin the school year, cases of Covid-19 in children and adolescents are increasing because of low vaccination rates.

For children younger than 12, there is no authorized vaccine.

Cases in children are likely to continue increasing as they return to in-person schooling; this will be driven by the highly infectious Delta variant and low vaccination coverage.

Other countries where children are set to resume in person school will likely experience similar trends.

Among the top 10 infected countries, Iran, Brazil, Turkey, Russia, Colombia and Argentina have reported a decrease in cases over that last 14-days.

The most recent surge of Covid-19 cases appears to be levelling off in these countries.

The reason is unclear, but health experts have noted that the peak and decline of the Covid-19 virus, regardless of which variant, appears to have a two month cycle.

One explanation health experts have offered for this cycle is that each strain circulates for about two months before it recedes, and a new strain emerges, or herd immunity is reached.

Another explanation is that this is the time it takes for the virus to circulate among people’s social circles infecting people who are the most vulnerable.

Ana Fernandez Menjivar, MSc DLSHTM, Senior Epidemiologist, GlobalData

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