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June 22, 2021

GlobalData Epidemiologist Report: Experts predict higher prevalence of Delta variant

By Paul Dennis

22 June

Globally, the total confirmed cases of Covid-19 have reached over 178,827,000 with more than 3,874,000 deaths and over 129,343,000 recoveries reported.

The US, India, and Brazil occupy the first, second, and third positions, respectively for total confirmed Covid-19 cases.

Of these leading countries, Brazil has the highest number of deaths per million at 2,401.1, followed by the US at 1,841.1 and India at 287.1.

In Europe, Italy, the UK, and France all continue to be badly affected, each reporting deaths of above 1,600 deaths per million people.

For most countries in South America, cases continue to climb.

Brazil, Colombia, and Argentina report seven-day case averages greater than 18,000, with a further five South American countries reporting a seven-day average greater than 2,000.

On Monday, Colombia reported a record 648 deaths and total deaths have surpassed 100,000, making it the tenth country to reach this figure.

Increased cases and a lack of vaccines have led to widespread protests.

Cases continue to decline in Japan, following a peak of over 6,000 reported daily in mid-May.

The current seven-day average reported was 1,416, down 22% since last week.

Despite this, concerns around the safety of the Tokyo Olympics persist.

Experts recommend that the daily average must fall below 100 cases in Tokyo for the games to be held safely.

Further to this, vaccination rates remain low at only 250 dose counts per 1,000 people.

The Covid Delta variant is now dominant in the UK, thwarting plans of lockdown relaxation.

Experts predict that other countries will see similar increases in the prevalence of this variant.

It is also probable that less genetic sequencing is masking the actual prevalence of this variant elsewhere.

Zoë Nicolaou, Intern in Epidemiology at GlobalData

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