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August 16, 2021

GlobalData Epidemiologist Report: Global Covid cases pass 207 million – continued rise in Europe

By Paul Dennis

16 August

Globally, the total confirmed cases of Covid-19 have reached over 207,348,000, with more than 4,365,000 deaths and over 143,880,000 recoveries reported.

In Europe, the UK reported over 28,000 daily confirmed cases yesterday, up 8% over the past two weeks, indicating another rise in the incidence of Covid-19.

Cases are also on the rise in Germany and Italy.

Germany reports over 4,300 daily confirmed cases, up 29% over the last two weeks, while Italy’s 6,300 daily confirmed cases are up 17% over the same period.

In response to rising cases, Germany has placed the US on the ‘high risk’ Covid-19 list and individuals traveling to Germany from the US will face tighter entry restrictions.

Given that Germany’s population has a similar proportion of fully vaccinated individuals compared to the US, the measure is intended to slow the transmission of the Delta variant, which is significantly more infectious and has quickly become the most prevalent variant in the US.

This strategy, however, does not replace vaccinations in preventing localized transmission and thus it remains critical for Germany to reach its vaccination target.

In Asia, the highly infective Delta variant continues to drive up confirmed Covid-19 case numbers as Thailand, Malaysia, Japan, and the Philippines have seen increases to their average daily confirmed cases over the past two weeks by 28%, 22%, 77%, and 69%, respectively.

In Indonesia, where daily confirmed Covid-19 cases have declined by 31% over the past two weeks, over 26,900 daily confirmed cases were reported yesterday.

The country has the second-highest total in Asia and is followed by Thailand and Malaysia.

Moreover, Indonesia’s daily Covid-19 deaths have neared 1,500 and are the highest in the world; this situation looks grim as only 9.5% of individuals are fully vaccinated, which will do little to mitigate the high rate of localized transmission.

Children in Indonesia have been particularly affected by the spread of the Delta variant as nearly 70% of the over 1,200 deaths in Indonesian children occurred during the past two months, corresponding to when the Delta variant began spreading.

This impact suggests that the Delta variant may be more dangerous for children than previous Covid-19 variants.

Similar observations in the US have helped fueled debates about mask mandates as schools re-open for the year.

Such a strategy is critical to reducing the spread and impact of the Delta variant, as masks may not only reduce the risk of infection, but may at the very least help reduce the initial viral load to prevent more severe infection.

Walter Gabriel, MPH, Epidemiologist at GlobalData Plc.

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