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September 27, 2021

GlobalData Epidemiologist Report: US vaccination coverage may not be sufficient to control Covid surge

By Paul Dennis

27 September

Globally, the total confirmed cases of Covid-19 have reached over 231,895,000, with more than 4,749,000 deaths reported.

In the United States, cases of Covid-19 have been increasing since the beginning of the summer.

On average, there have been 156,000 daily new cases of Covid-19 reported during September in the US, this is up from 13,000 daily cases in June this year.

Some 56% of the US population have now been fully vaccinated which may not be enough to control the infection surge.

As the travel restrictions for vaccinated foreign visitors have been lifted in the US, there is concern that cases may rise, among unvaccinated and vaccinated populations.

Preliminary evidence suggests that the third dose of a Covid-19 vaccine prolongs immunity and reduces the severity of Covid-19 infection.

As many developed countries, such as the US, Israel and South Korea, have a surplus supply of vaccines, they have authorized the rollout of booster doses of the Covid-19 vaccine for the elderly and high-risk populations.

This will likely reduce the surge of Covid-19 infections that are anticipated as travel restrictions are further modified in different ways across these countries, including allowing vaccinated foreign visitors, allowing larger vaccinated tourist groups, and expanding the list of countries that are allowed entry.

In South Sudan, there have been over 11,000 total confirmed cases of Covid-19 reported, and after several months of lockdown restrictions, daily new infections are now averaging at around 60 cases per day.

While the current situation is relatively under control, South Sudan is one of the poorest countries in the world, and much of their healthcare budget is provided through financial aid; this has restricted their ability to rollout vaccinations.

Less than 1% of South Sudanese individuals are fully vaccinated; so, it is likely that daily new cases will increase, especially with the circulation of the highly infectious Delta variant.

The World Health Organization has suggested that wealthier nations hold off on administering booster vaccinations until developing countries have higher vaccination coverage.

Despite claims that developed countries will be donating vaccines to less developed countries, it is unlikely that this will happen on a large scale until wealthier countries reach a level of herd immunity.

Anna Moody, MRES, Epidemiologist at GlobalData

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