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April 20, 2021

How lockdown savings can boost the post-Covid economy

By Paul Dennis

20 April

Howard Archer, chief economist advisor of the EY ITEM Club, shared an article on households having accumulated extra cash equivalent to 6% of the world output since the Covid-19 outbreak.

Economists believe that this extra $5.4tn of savings worldwide has made consumers confident about the economic outlook, which will ultimately pave the way for a strong rebound in spending as businesses reopen.

Archer believes that UK consumers will play a leading role in the recovery as restrictions ease and businesses reopen from the second quarter.

Other economists such as Mark Zandi believe that the pent-up demand and excess savings will drive a surge in consumer spending globally, as markets reopen and countries strive to reach herd immunity.

It is estimated that if consumers spend about one-third of the additional savings, it will boost global output by just over 2 percentage points both this year and next.

According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) data, household saving rates in many advanced economies reached its highest levels in 2020, while bank deposits increased across many countries.

Excess saving was estimated to be the highest for Europe and North America, which witnessed numerous lockdowns and high government spending.

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