Aficamten is a small molecule commercialized by Cytokinetics, with a leading Phase III program in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 9 clinical trials, of which 5 were completed, 3 are ongoing, and 1 is planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Aficamten’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Aficamten is expected to reach an annual total of $658 mn by 2033 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Aficamten Overview
Cytokinetics Overview
Cytokinetics is a biopharmaceutical company with a focus on the discovery, development, and commercialization of muscle activators and muscle inhibitors as potential treatments for debilitating diseases wherein muscle performance is affected. The company develops small molecule drug candidates which is designed to affect muscle function and contractility. Cytokinetics is developing aficamten, a next-generation cardiac myosin inhibitor, to treat hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). It is also developing reldesemtiv, a fast skeletal muscle troponin activator, for the treatment of ALS patients. The company has licensing and collaboration agreements with Amgen, Ji Xing, and Astellas for advancing its drug candidates. Cytokinetics is headquartered in South San Francisco, California, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$94.6 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 34.3% over FY2021. The operating loss of the company was US$349.1 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of US$186.3 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was US$389 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of US$215.3 million in FY2021.
The company reported revenues of US$0.4 million for the third quarter ended September 2023, a decrease of 56.4% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of Aficamten’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
