Afimetoran is a small molecule commercialized by Bristol-Myers Squibb, with a leading Phase II program in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 12 clinical trials, of which 9 were completed, and 3 are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Afimetoran’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Afimetoran is expected to reach an annual total of $17 mn by 2036 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Afimetoran Overview
Afimetoran (BMS-986256) is under development for the treatment of cutaneous lupus erythematosus including acute cutaneous lupus erythematosus (ACLE), subacute cutaneous lupus erythematosus (SCLE), or discoid lupus erythematosus (DLE) and systemic lupus erythematosus. It is administered by oral route. The drug candidate acts by targeting toll-like receptor 7(TLR7) and toll-like receptor 8 (TLR8). It was also under development for inflammation.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Overview
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) is a specialty biopharmaceutical company that is engaged in discovery, development, licensing and manufacturing, marketing, distribution and sale of medicines and related medical products to patients with serious diseases. Its primary focus is on cancer, immunology, cardiovascular, and fibrotic therapeutic projects. The company offers its products across the world to wholesalers, retail pharmacies, medical professionals, hospitals and government entities. BMS provides its products in the US, Europe, and Japan. The company conducts research to focus on the discovery and development of novel medicines that address serious diseases in areas of significant unmet medical need. BMS is headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$45,006 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), a decrease of 2.5% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company’s operating margin was 20.9%, compared to an operating margin of 20.9% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 17.8%, compared to a net margin of 13.7% in FY2022.
The company reported revenues of US$11,865 million for the first quarter ended March 2024, an increase of 3.4% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of Afimetoran’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
