AOC-1020 is an antisense rnai oligonucleotide commercialized by Avidity Biosciences, with a leading Phase II program in Facioscapulohumeral Muscular Dystrophy (FSHD). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 1 clinical trial, which is ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of AOC-1020’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for AOC-1020 is expected to reach an annual total of $51 mn by 2035 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
AOC-1020 Overview
AOC-1020 is under development for the treatment of facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy (FSHD). It is administered through intravenous route. The drug candidate is an antibody oligonucleotide conjugate (AOC) comprising monoclonal antibody that binds to cells expressing transferrin receptor 1 (TfR1) conjugated with a siRNA targeting DUX4 mRNA. It is being developed based on antibody oligonucleotide conjugate (AOC) platform.
Avidity Biosciences Overview
Avidity Biosciences is a biotech company that develops antibody oligonucleotide conjugates (AOCs). The company product pipeline include AOC 1001, AOC 1044 and AOC 1020. Its pipeline treats myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1), duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) and facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy (FSHD). Avidity Biosciences carries out AOC components such as monoclonal, linker, siRNA and PMO. The company has research collaborations with leading pharma companies, to discover antibody-based drug candidates against various therapeutic targets. Avidity Biosciences is headquartered in San Diego, California, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$9.2 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), a decrease of 1.1% over FY2021. The operating loss of the company was US$178.9 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of US$118.1 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was US$174 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of US$118 million in FY2021.
The company reported revenues of US$2.8 million for the third quarter ended September 2023, an increase of 21.7% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of AOC-1020’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
