Autogene cevumeran is a mrna vaccine commercialized by F. Hoffmann-La Roche, with a leading Phase II program in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 6 clinical trials, of which 5 are ongoing, and 1 is planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Autogene cevumeran’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for Autogene cevumeran is expected to reach an annual total of $30 mn by 2035 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Autogene cevumeran Overview

Autogene cevumeran is under development for the treatment of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, previously untreated advanced melanoma, locally advanced or metastatic solid tumors such as non-small cell lung cancer, colorectal cancer, head and neck cancer squamous cell carcinoma, transitional cell carcinoma (urothelial cell carcinoma) including urethral cancer, ureters cancer, triple-negative breast cancer, bladder cancer, renal pelvis, renal cell carcinoma, melanoma, oral cavity cancer, oropharyngeal, hypopharyngeal and laryngeal cancer. The drug candidate is administered by intravenous route. The therapeutic candidate is developed based on iNeST (patient specific cancer antigen immune therapy) platform technology. It was also under development for Merkel cell carcinoma, anal cancer, cervical cancer, hepatocellular cancer, MSI-H and MSI-low tumors and squamous cell carcinoma of skin.

F. Hoffmann-La Roche Overview

F. Hoffmann-La Roche (Roche) is a biotechnology company that develops drugs and diagnostics to treat major diseases. It provides medicines for the treatment of cancer, other auto-immune diseases, central nervous system disorders, ophthalmological disorders, infectious diseases, and respiratory diseases. The company also offers in vitro diagnostics, tissue-based cancer diagnostics, and diabetes management solutions. Roche conducts research to identify novel methods to prevent, diagnose, and treat diseases. The company offers its products and services to hospitals, commercial laboratories, healthcare professionals, researchers, and pharmacists. Together with its subsidiaries and partners, the company has operations in various countries. Roche is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.

The company reported revenues of (Swiss Francs) CHF63,281 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 0.8% over FY2021. The operating profit of the company was CHF17,476 million in FY2022, compared to an operating profit of CHF18,155 million in FY2021. The net profit of the company was CHF12,421 million in FY2022, compared to a net profit of CHF13,930 million in FY2021.

For a complete picture of Autogene cevumeran’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.


GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.