Axitinib is a small molecule commercialized by Ocular Therapeutix, with a leading Phase III program in Wet (Neovascular / Exudative) Macular Degeneration. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 6 clinical trials, of which 1 was completed, 4 are ongoing, and 1 is planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Axitinib’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Axitinib is expected to reach an annual total of $137 mn by 2037 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Axitinib Overview
Axitinib (OTX-TKI) is under development for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD), moderately severe to severe non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy, diabetic macular edema, and retinal vein occlusion. It is a sustained release formulation administered through intravitreal injection. It acts by targeting tyrosine kinase.
Ocular Therapeutix Overview
Ocular Therapeutix is a biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops and commercializes therapies for treating eye diseases. The company’s lead product candidate DEXTENZA is used for the treatment of post-surgical Ocular inflammation and pain. Its pipeline products include OTX-TP, used for treating glaucoma and Ocular hypertension, OTX-BPI, targeting acute Ocular pain, OTX-BDI, against post-op pain, inflammation and anti-bacterial infections; OTX-KTO for treating allergic conjunctivitis; OTX-CSI, against dry eye. Ocular Therapeutix also develops intracameral implants for treating multiple eye disorders. The company works in collaboration with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc to develop formulations for the treatment of wet AMD and other serious retinal diseases. Ocular Therapeutix is headquartered in Bedford, Massachusetts, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$51.5 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 18.3% over FY2021. The operating loss of the company was US$78.7 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of US$78 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was US$71 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of US$6.6 million in FY2021.
The company reported revenues of US$15.1 million for the third quarter ended September 2023, a decrease of 0.7% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of Axitinib’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
