Darigabat is a small molecule commercialized by Cerevel Therapeutics, with a leading Phase II program in Seizures. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 15 clinical trials, of which 10 were completed, 3 are ongoing, and 2 were terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Darigabat’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
The revenue for Darigabat is expected to reach an annual total of $118 mn by 2036 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Darigabat Overview
Darigabat (CVL-865) is under development for the treatment of panic disorder and drug-resistant focal onset seizures. It is administered orally as a tablet. The drug candidate specifically targets alpha 2,3 and 5 subunits of GABA-A receptor to overcome the significant side effects associated with alpha 1 binding. It was under development for the treatment for chronic low back pain and generalized anxiety disorder.
Cerevel Therapeutics Overview
Cerevel Therapeutics (Cerevel) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that develops therapies to treat neuroscience diseases. The company’s product pipeline includes various drug candidates such as Emraclidine for treatment of schizophrenia and Alzheimer’s disease psychosis; and Darigabat to treat epilepsy and panic disorder. Cerevel’s pipeline also includes Tavapadon drug candidate for treatment of both early-and late-stage Parkinson’s disease; and CVL-871 to treat dementia-related apathy. The company is also developing other programs such as CVL-354, PDE4 inhibitor, and M4 Agonist for therapeutic areas of major depressive disorder (MDD), psychiatric, neuroinflammatory disorder, and neurological indications. Cerevel is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, the US.
The operating loss of the company was US$367.9 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of US$220.1 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was US$351.5 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of US$225.3 million in FY2021.
For a complete picture of Darigabat’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
