Dordaviprone is a small molecule commercialized by Chimerix, with a leading Phase III program in Glioma. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 29 clinical trials, of which 9 were completed, 14 are ongoing, 3 are planned, and 3 were terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Dordaviprone’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Dordaviprone is expected to reach an annual total of $145 mn by 2035 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Dordaviprone Overview
ONC-201 is under development for the treatment of high-grade glioma including thalamus, hypothalamus, brainstem, cerebellum, gliosarcoma, midbrain, or spinal cord, diffuse midline glioma, neuroendocrine tumors, diffuse intrinsic pontine glioma, pheochromocytoma-paraganglioma (PC-PG), triple-negative breast cancer and endometrial, colorectal, prostate cancers, , relapsed or refractory acute myelocytic leukemia, acute lymphocytic leukemia, myelodysplastic syndrome, multiple myeloma and unspecified indication. The drug candidate is administered orally in the form of capsules. The drug candidate is developed based on cell-based molecular imaging platform. It acts by targeting JAK/STAT pathway, Akt and ERK and ClpP.
It was also under development for the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer. It was also under development for the treatment of relapsed/refractory non-Hodgkin's lymphoma includes diffuse large b-cell lymphoma, mantle cell lymphoma, cutaneous T-cell lymphoma and transformed large cell lymphoma.
Chimerix Overview
Chimerix is a biopharmaceutical company. It develops, discovers, and commercializes novel and oral antiviral therapeutics. The company’s pipeline product portfolio includes ONC201, ONC206, ONC212, CMX521 drug candidates. Its products are used to treat various diseases like gliomas, central nervous system tumors, SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), and IND-enabling studies. Its brincidofovir tablet and oral suspension formulations are used in the treatment of smallpox disease in adult and pediatric patients. The company markets its products under the brand name TEMBEXA. The organization works in partnership with Oncoceutics, Inc., Cantex Pharmaceuticals, BARDA, and SymBio Pharmaceuticals. Chimerix is headquartered in Durham, North Carolina, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$33.8 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), compared to a revenue of US$2 million in FY2021. The operating loss of the company was US$60.4 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of US$173.4 million in FY2021. The net profit of the company was US$172.2 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of US$173.2 million in FY2021.
The company reported revenues of US$0.3 million for the first quarter ended March 2023, a decrease of 65.2% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of Dordaviprone’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
