Elinzanetant is a small molecule commercialized by Bayer, with a leading Phase III program in Vasomotor Symptoms of Menopause (Hot Flashes). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 28 clinical trials, of which 25 were completed, and 3 are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Elinzanetant’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Elinzanetant is expected to reach an annual total of $627 mn by 2034 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Elinzanetant Overview
Elinzanetant is under development for the treatment of sex hormone-related conditions in women such as vasomotor symptoms of menopause (hot flashes). It is a capsule formulation administered orally. NT-814 is a small molecule that acts by targeting NK-1 and NK-3 receptors. It was also under development for the treatment of schizophrenia and for the treatment of central nervous system disorders such as opiate use disorder.
Bayer Overview
Bayer carries out the discovery, development, manufacturing, and commercialization of products for human health, and agriculture. It provides medicines for cardiovascular diseases, women’s health, cancer, hematology, ophthalmology, and other indications. It also strives to develop new molecules and technologies for use in the fields of medicine and modern agriculture. The company’s product portfolio includes prescription products, specialty pharmaceuticals, diagnostic imaging equipment, non-prescription (over-the-counter or OTC) products, seeds, crop protection solutions and non-agricultural pest control solutions. Bayer markets its products through wholesalers, pharmacies, hospitals, and retailers. It operates through a network of subsidiaries in Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East. Bayer is headquartered in Leverkusen, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany.
The company reported revenues of (Euro) EUR47,637 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), a decrease of 6.1% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company’s operating margin was 1.3%, compared to an operating margin of 13.8% in FY2022. The net loss of the company was EUR2,941 million in FY2023, compared to a net profit of EUR4,150 million in FY2022.
For a complete picture of Elinzanetant’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
