Gemcitabine is a small molecule commercialized by Johnson & Johnson, with a leading Phase III program in Non Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (NMIBC) (Superficial Bladder Cancer). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 33 clinical trials, of which 18 were completed, 14 are ongoing, and 1 is planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Gemcitabine’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Gemcitabine is expected to reach an annual total of $382 mn by 2033 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Gemcitabine Overview
Gemcitabine (TAR-200) is under development for the treatment of upper tract urothelial carcinomas including non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC), muscle-invasive transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder. It is administered intravesically. The therapeutic candidate is a drug-device combination product designed to release gemcitabine continuously into the bladder over 7 days. It is an anticancer nucleoside analog. The drug candidate acts by targeting ribonucleoside diphosphate reductase subunit M1.
Johnson & Johnson Overview
Johnson & Johnson (J&J) researches, develops, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical products and medical devices. The company conducts business through its operating companies. It provides pharmaceuticals for immune disorders, cancer, neurological disorders, infectious, cardiovascular, and metabolic diseases; and medical devices for use in cardiovascular, orthopaedic, neurovascular care, general surgery and vision care fields. J&J distributes pharmaceutical and medical products to retailers, wholesalers, healthcare professionals and hospitals. The company offers its products in the US; Europe; Asia-Pacific and Africa; and Western Hemisphere (excluding the US) and Latin America. J&J is headquartered in New Brunswick, New Jersey, the US.
For a complete picture of Gemcitabine’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
