KER-050 is a fusion protein commercialized by Keros Therapeutics, with a leading Phase II program in Thrombocytopenia. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 3 clinical trials, of which 1 was completed, and 2 are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of KER-050’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for KER-050 is expected to reach an annual total of $222 mn by 2038 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

KER-050 Overview

KER-050 is under development for the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), cytopenias including anemia and thrombocytopenia in patients with myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) and myelofibrosis (MF). It is administered through subcutaneous route. The drug candidate is a protein which is an engineered ligand trap comprised of a modified ligand-binding domain of the TGF-beta receptor, activin receptor type IIA that is fused to the portion of the human antibody known as the Fc domain.

Keros Therapeutics Overview

Keros Therapeutics is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of novel treatments for hematological and musculoskeletal disorders. It focuses on study of TGF-β protein for treatment of development of therapeutics. The company’s product pipeline includes KER-050 for treatment of low blood cell counts, cytopenias, including anemia and thrombocytopenia for patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) and myelofibrosis (MF); KER-047 for treating fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva (FOP) and anemia from high hepcidin; KER-012 for treating disorders associated with bone loss, such as osteoporosis and also osteogenesis imperfecta and pulmonary arterial hypertension; and ActRll Variant targeting metabolic diseases. Keros Therapeutics is headquartered in Lexington, Massachusetts, the US.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$20.1 million for the fiscal year ended December 2021 (FY2021). The operating loss of the company was US$56.4 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of US$46.7 million in FY2020. The net loss of the company was US$58.7 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of US$45.4 million in FY2020.

For a complete picture of KER-050’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.