NanoFlu is a subunit vaccine commercialized by Novavax, with a leading Phase III program in Influenzavirus B Infections and Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype Infections. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 7 clinical trials, of which 3 were completed, 1 is ongoing, 2 are planned, and 1 was terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of NanoFlu’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for NanoFlu is expected to reach an annual total of $506 mn by 2037 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

NanoFlu Overview

Nanoflu is under development for the prevention of influenza A strains including H1N1, H3N2 and influenza B virus infections and seasonal influenza. It is administered through intramuscular route. It acts by targeting hemagglutinin. The vaccine candidate is a recombinant trivalent nanoparticle influenza vaccine with matrix-M1 adjuvant (NanoFlu) developed based on recombinant protein nanoparticle technology.

Novavax Overview

Novavax is a biotechnology company that discovers, develops and commercializes vaccines to prevent a wide range of infectious diseases. The company develops genetically-engineered vaccine candidates harnessing three-dimensional nanostructures of recombinant proteins critical to disease pathogenesis. Its pipeline products include NVX-CoV2373 for coronavirus, NanoFlu for seasonal influenza, ResVax for respiratory syncytial syndrome and vaccines indicated for the prevention of Ebola virus, Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). It is also developing proprietary immune-stimulating saponin-based adjuvants. The company operates research and manufacturing facilities in Gaithersburg, Maryland; Uppsala, Sweden; and Bohumil, Czech Republic. Novavax is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland, the US.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$1,146.3 million for the fiscal year ended December 2021 (FY2021), compared to a revenue of US$475.6 million in FY2020. The operating loss of the company was US$1,686.6 million in FY2021, compared to an operating loss of US$416.7 million in FY2020. The net loss of the company was US$1,743.8 million in FY2021, compared to a net loss of US$418.3 million in FY2020. The company reported revenues of US$734.6 million for the third quarter ended September 2022, compared to a revenue of US$185.9 million the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of NanoFlu’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.