NBI-1065845 is a small molecule commercialized by Neurocrine Biosciences, with a leading Phase II program in Treatment Resistant Depression. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 3 clinical trials, of which 2 were completed, and 1 is ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of NBI-1065845’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for NBI-1065845 is expected to reach an annual total of $33 mn by 2034 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
NBI-1065845 Overview
NBI-1065845 (TAK-653) is under development for major depressive disorder (MDD), treatment-resistant depression (TRD). It is administered orally as a tablet. It acts by targeting AMPA receptor. It was also under development for the treatment of neurological diseases. The drug candidate is a new molecular entity.
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Neurocrine Biosciences Overview
Neurocrine Biosciences (Neurocrine) discovers, develops, and sells pharmaceutical products for the treatment of neurologic, neuropsychiatric, and neuroendocrine-related diseases and disorders. Its lead product, Ingrezza (valbenazine) capsule, is a US FDA-approved selective vesicular monoamine transporter 2 inhibitor for the treatment of adults with tardive dyskinesia (TD). The company’s major pipeline products include valbenazine in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of chorea in Huntington’s disease and adjunctive treatment of Schizophrenia; NBI-1065846 in Phase II clinical trial for anhedonia in depression; NBI-827104 in Phase II clinical trials for rare pediatric epilepsy; NBI-921352 in Phase II trials for focal onset seizures in adults; crinecerfont (NBI-74788), a corticotropin-releasing factor1 (CRF1) antagonist in Phase III trials for congenital adrenal hyperplasia in adults and in Phase II trials for congenital adrenal hyperplasia in pediatric patients. Neurocrine is headquartered in San Diego, California, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$1,488.7 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 31.3% over FY2021. In FY2022, the company’s operating margin was 12%, compared to an operating margin of 9% in FY2021. In FY2022, the company recorded a net margin of 10.4%, compared to a net margin of 7.9% in FY2021.
The company reported revenues of US$420.4 million for the first quarter ended March 2023, an increase of 2% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of NBI-1065845’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
