OPC-1 is a cell therapy commercialized by Lineage Cell Therapeutics, with a leading Phase II program in Acute Spinal Cord Injury. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 3 clinical trials, of which 2 were completed, and 1 is planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of OPC-1’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for OPC-1 is expected to reach an annual total of $4 mn by 2038 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
OPC-1 Overview
AST-OPC1 is under development for the treatment of acute spinal cord injury. It is administered through injection (parenteral). The therapeutic candidate contains human embryonic stem cells (hESCs)-derived from oligodendrocyte progenitor cells. The drug candidate was also under development for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease, Canavan disease, cerebral ischemia and multiple sclerosis .
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Lineage Cell Therapeutics Overview
Lineage Cell Therapeutics (Lineage) formerly known as BioTime, is a clinical-stage biotechnology company that develops new cell therapies for unmet medical needs. It develops products based on its core proprietary technology cell-based therapy platform. The company focuses on developing new cellular therapies for neurological conditions associated with demyelination and degenerative retinal diseases. Lineage’s lead product Renevia is developed for the treatment of facial lipoatrophy and HIV lipoatrophy. Its pipeline products include OpRegen for advanced dry age-related macular degeneration, Opc1 in acute spinal cord injury, and Vac2 for non-small cell lung cancer. The company has subsidiaries in Israel, Singapore, and the US. Lineage is headquartered in Carlsbad, California, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$14.7 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), compared to a revenue of US$4.3 million in FY2021. The operating loss of the company was US$22.5 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of US$48.7 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was US$26.3 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of US$43 million in FY2021.
For a complete picture of OPC-1’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
