Povorcitinib is a small molecule commercialized by Incyte, with a leading Phase III program in Hidradenitis Suppurativa. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 21 clinical trials, of which 10 were completed, 9 are ongoing, and 2 are planned. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Povorcitinib’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Povorcitinib is expected to reach an annual total of $299 mn by 2035 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Povorcitinib Overview
Povorcitinib (INCB-54707) is under development for the treatment of prurigo nodularis, hidradenitis suppurativa, asthma, chronic spontaneous urticaria and nonsegmental vitiligo. The drug candidate is administered through oral route in the form of tablet. It acts by targeting Janus kinase 1 (JAK1).
Incyte Overview
Incyte is a biopharmaceutical company, that discovers, develops and commercializes proprietary cancer therapeutics. The company’s lead product, Jakafi (ruxolitinib) is marketed in the US for the treatment of patients with high-risk myelofibrosis; and polycythemia vera who are intolerant to hydroxyurea. The company distributes Jakafi through a network of specialty pharmacy providers and wholesalers. In collaboration with Incyte, Novartis International Pharmaceutical Ltd (Novartis) develops and commercializes ruxolitinib outside the US for hematologic and cancer indications under the name Jakavi. The company’s pipeline portfolio encompasses drugs for the treatment of lung cancer, graft versus host disease, b-cell malignancies, solid tumors, non-small cell lung cancer, glioblastoma, liver cancer, and advanced malignancies. Incyte is headquartered in Wilmington, Delaware, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$3,695.7 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 8.9% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company’s operating margin was 16.8%, compared to an operating margin of 17.1% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 16.2%, compared to a net margin of 10% in FY2022.
The company reported revenues of US$880.9 million for the first quarter ended March 2024, a decrease of 13.1% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of Povorcitinib’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
