Ulotaront is a small molecule commercialized by Sumitomo Pharma, with a leading Phase III program in Major Depressive Disorder;Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 26 clinical trials, of which 20 were completed, 3 are ongoing, and 3 were terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Ulotaront’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Ulotaront is expected to reach an annual total of $15 mn by 2035 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Ulotaront Overview
Ulotaront hydrochloride (SEP-363856, SEP-856) is under development for the treatment of schizophrenia, major depressive disorder, generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), and substance drug abuse (cocaine). The drug candidate is administered orally. It is an anti-psychotic agent. It acts by targeting TAAR1 and serotonin 5-HT1A receptors. It is developed based on the PsychoGenics artificial intelligence (AI) technology.
It was also under development for the treatment of narcolepsy-cataplexy and Parkinson’s disease psychosis.
Sumitomo Pharma Overview
Sumitomo Pharma, formerly Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co Ltd, develops, manufactures, sells, imports and exports pharmaceutical products. The company drugs are focused on major therapeutic areas which include regenerative diseases, oncology, psychiatry and neurology, and infectious diseases. It also offers veterinary medicines for companion animals, primarily dogs, and cats, as well as for livestock such as cattle, swine, poultry, horses, and aquacultured fish. The company offers food additives, chemical product materials, food ingredients, and other products. Sumitomo Pharma has research laboratories and manufacturing and distribution facilities in Japan. The company operates through subsidiaries and offices in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. Sumitomo Pharma is headquartered in Chuo-ku, Osaka, Japan.
The company reported revenues of (Yen) JPY314,558 million for the fiscal year ended March 2024 (FY2024), a decrease of 43.4% over FY2023. The operating loss of the company was JPY354,859 million in FY2024, compared to an operating loss of JPY76,979 million in FY2023. The net loss of the company was JPY314,969 million in FY2024, compared to a net loss of JPY74,512 million in FY2023.
The company reported revenues of JPY90,675 million for the first quarter ended June 2024, an increase of 14% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of Ulotaront’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
