The revenue for Vincerinone is expected to reach an annual total of $42 mn by 2033 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Vincerinone Overview

Vatiquinone (EPI-743) is under development for the treatment of Alpers-Huttenlocher syndrome, Friedreich ataxia, inherited mitochondrial disorders including Leigh syndrome, Alpers syndrome, mitochondrial encephalomyopathy, lactic acidosis and stroke-like episodes (MELAS), myoclonic epilepsy with ragged-red fibers (MERRF), pontocerebellar hypoplasia type 6 (PCH6), or other mitochondrial disease, mitochondrial diseases and refractory epilepsy. It is administered orally. It is a small molecule that readily crosses into the central nervous system. It works by targeting the enzyme NADPH quinone oxidoreductase 1 (NQO1) and arachidonate 15-lipoxygenase. It was also under development for the treatment of Rett syndrome, Melas syndrome, Leber’s hereditary optic neuropathy and mitochondrial diseases such as Pearson syndrome, a form of mitochondrial myopathy and Tourette syndrome. It was under development for the treatment of cobalamin C deficiency syndrome (methylmalonic acidemia), RARS2 syndrome, Parkinson's disease, metabolic disease (disorders of energy utilization or oxidation-reduction),Leigh's disease in children and noise-induced hearing loss.

PTC Therapeutics Overview

PTC Therapeutics discovers, develops, and markets medicines for the treatment of rare disorders. Its marketed products include Evrysdi (risdiplam) for spinal muscular atrophy, Translarna (ataluren) and Emflaza (deflazacort) for the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy. The company’s pipeline candidates target the treatment of Huntington’s disease; children with inherited mitochondrial disease; leiomyosarcoma; acute myelogenous leukemia; and aromatic L-amino acid decarboxylase deficiency. PTC Therapeutics works in collaboration with various biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies for advancing its pipeline candidates. It operates through its subsidiaries in the US and Europe. PTC Therapeutics is headquartered in South Plainfield, New Jersey, the US.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$698.8 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 29.7% over FY2021. The operating loss of the company was US$447.4 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of US$374.4 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was US$559 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of US$523.9 million in FY2021. The company reported revenues of US$220.4 million for the first quarter ended March 2023, an increase of 31.6% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of Vincerinone’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

This content was updated on 2 September 2023

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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.