Data analysis from the New Statesman

One of the striking features of the novel coronavirus outbreak is that it triggered near-unanimity among economists about how to tackle it. But now that unanimity is beginning to fracture: not over what should be done to weather the recession, but over whether the economy can in fact rebound. Initial hopes of a “Cape Cod economy” seasonal recovery have been replaced in some quarters by something far gloomier.

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With that in mind, the New Statesman’s political editor Stephen Bush examines the possibilities of the optimists’ V-shape recovery against the more recent concerns of a deep and profound crash.