Several pharmaceutical companies are racing to develop a vaccine for the Covid-19 virus that has wreaked havoc on the world economy. While one shot of the vaccine was initially thought to provide immunity against the virus, reports are now emerging that two or more annual vaccinations may be required.

Macroeconomic influencers share their views on the Covid -19 impact.

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Daniel Lacalle

Daniel Lacalle, an economist and author, shared an article on AstraZeneca CEO’s concerns that the unpredictable nature of the Covid-19 virus may require annual vaccinations. AstraZeneca is currently working on a vaccine in partnership with the Oxford University, which has produced a positive immune response in early stage human clinical trials.

Based on the technology used for developing a vaccine for SARS 1, the immunity provided by the vaccine may last for only 12 to 18 months. The exact required vaccination period is not known due to the unpredictable nature of the virus.

Harry A. Patrinos

Harry A. Patrinos, education economist and manager at World Bank, shared an article on the impact of school closures due to Covid-19 pandemic on future earnings. According to a study in the article the school closures are expected to result in $2.5tn or approximately 12.7% of annual GDP in lost future earnings in the US.

School closures were not limited to the US but across the world 192 countries closed schools impacting more than 90% of students. The article notes that school closure can have long-term consequences on the education, income and life expectancy of a child.

Gregory Daco

Gregory Daco, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, shared statistics related to the GDP contraction in the US. He noted after a 5% annualised contraction in the first quarter, the US GDP contracted by 32.9% annualised in the second quarter.

Daco added that the Q1 and Q2 numbers represent a 10.6% peak-to-trough contraction, which is third largest contraction over the last decade after the WWII demobilisation and the Great Depression.

Ludovic Subran

Ludovic Subran, chief economist at Allianz, shared an article on a surge in insolvencies in the second quarter of 2020 across the world. Approximately 147 companies with a turnover of more than €50m ($56.2m) went insolvent during the quarter.

The largest increase was witnessed in Western Europe and the US with 64 and 52 cases of insolvencies. Retail, services and energy were the major sectors impacted during the quarter with retail and service recording 37 and 24 insolvency cases, followed by energy with 17.

The insolvencies are expected to create a domino effect impacting providers along the supply chain, the article added.

https://twitter.com/Ludovic_Subran/status/1288536414624382979