The revenue for ARX-517 is expected to reach an annual total of $74 mn by 2039 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

ARX-517 Overview

ARX-517 is under development for the treatment of solid tumors including metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer, pancreatic cancer, non-small lung cancer, ovarian cancer and glioblastoma multiforme. It is administered intravenously. It is an antibody drug conjugate (ADC) targeting prostate specific membrane antigen (PSMA). The drug candidate is based on site-specific conjugation technology using EuCODE mammalian host system and Ambrx technology.

Ambrx Biopharma Overview

Ambrx Biopharma (Ambrx) is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company that develops anti-body drug conjugates (ADC) and therapies to modulate immune system. The company is developing ARX 788, an anti-HER2 ADC for treatment in areas of breast cancer, gastric cancer, and other solid tumors. Its pipeline product also includes ARX 517 program that targets prostate-specific membrane antigen to treat prostate cancer; and ARX305 for treatment of renal cell carcinoma (RCC), nasopharyngeal cancers, multiple myeloma, non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, and acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Ambrx works in collaboration with Zhejiang Medicine, Sino Biopharmaceutical, and BeiGene. The company is conducting its ADCs clinical trials in China, and the US. Ambrx is headquartered in La Jolla, California, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$7.4 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), a decrease of 0.7% over FY2021. The operating loss of the company was US$76.4 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of US$64.4 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was US$78 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of US$68.1 million in FY2021. The company reported revenues of US$0.1 million for the third quarter ended September 2023, a decrease of 95.3% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of ARX-517’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

This content was updated on 18 March 2024

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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.