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Data Insights Net Present Value Model: BioNTech SE's BNT-323

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The revenue for BNT-323 is expected to reach an annual total of $499 mn by 2038 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

BNT-323 Overview

DB-1303 is under development for the treatment of advanced/unresectable, recurrent, or metastatic HER2-expressing malignant solid tumors, ovarian cancer, recurrent or metastatic endometrial carcinoma with HER2 overexpression, gastric, esophageal cancer, adenocarcinoma of the gastroesophageal junction, colorectal cancer, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 positive breast cancer (her2 positive breast cancer), metastatic breast cancer, vaginal cancer, non-small cell lung cancer, adenocarcinoma . It is administered through intravenous route of administration. It is being developed based on DITAC platform. It acts by targeting Her2 expressing tumor cells and DNA topoisomerase I (Top I).

BioNTech Overview

BioNTech is a biotechnology company that develops immunotherapies for cancer and infectious diseases. It is investigating mRNA therapeutics, engineered cell and gene therapies, antibodies and small molecule immunomodulators to treat advanced melanoma, solid tumors, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), prostate, head and neck, ovarian, pancreatic and triple negative breast cancer. The company is also evaluating treatments for HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, hepatitis B, influenza, and COVID-19. BioNTech uses FixVac and iNeST technology platforms to discover and develop cancer immunotherapies targeting antigens and neoantigens. It works in partnership with Genentech Inc, Pfizer, Genmab AS and other biopharmaceutical companies to develop its pipeline products. BioNTech is headquartered in Mainz, Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany.
The company reported revenues of (Euro) EUR3,819 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), a decrease of 77.9% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company’s operating margin was 18.1%, compared to an operating margin of 73% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 24.4%, compared to a net margin of 54.5% in FY2022. The company reported revenues of EUR187.6 million for the first quarter ended March 2024, a decrease of 87.3% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of BNT-323’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.